CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
58-62 | Road
9
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
62-58 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Davis Martin
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 6-7 | 3.92 | 1.39 | 128.2 | 99 |
| Davis Martin | 9-6 | 4.17 | 1.33 | 123.0 | 108 |
6-7
W-L
9-6
3.92 Ldr
ERA
4.17
1.39
WHIP
Ldr 1.33
128.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
123.0
99
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 108
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
49%
WHITE SOX
51%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (CIN)
REDS
46%
Book Odds: +119
WHITE SOX
56%
Book Odds: -128
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5
59%
Under 8.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.3%
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.7
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Chicago
4.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
CIN @ CHW
9 - 8
Aug 12, 2026
CIN @ CHW
0 - 5
Aug 11, 2026
CIN @ CHW
5 - 4
May 15, 2025
CHW @ CIN
1 - 7
May 14, 2025
CHW @ CIN
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.699
OPS
▲
.826
213
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+108.0% more
Chicago: 1.9
vs
Cincinnati: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+107.5% more
Chicago: 16.1
vs
Cincinnati: 7.7
Hits (L5)
+74.5% more
Chicago: 8.2
vs
Cincinnati: 4.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.7
9
CHW Score
4.8
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 4.7
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 10.5
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 7.7
16.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.4
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+119 / -128
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CIN
CHW
CIN
ML
49%
81-86
55%
88-71
56%
94-73
49%
79-81
ATS
59%
99-68
54%
86-73
56%
93-74
50%
80-80
TTL
58%
96-69-2
53%
81-73-5
51%
84-81-2
54%
83-72-5
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