Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Yankees SEA @ NYY

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

57-65  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Aug 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

68-53  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Logan Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Gilbert

#36 | Starting Pitcher
@
Max Fried
STARTING PITCHER

Max Fried

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Gilbert 8-7 3.42 1.00 139.1 145
Max Fried 4-3 2.88 0.97 81.1 75
8-7 W-L 4-3
3.42 ERA Ldr 2.88
1.00 WHIP Ldr 0.97
139.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 81.1
145 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 75
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
48%
📊
YANKEES
52%
▲ Edge: +7.10% (SEA)
MARINERS 41% Book Odds: +147
YANKEES 61% Book Odds: -158
Book Implied: 40.50% / 61.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 7.5 52%
Under 7.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (+1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

52.0%

Yankees Cover

48.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.1%

SEA By 3-4 runs

13.0%

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
3.9
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 SEA @ NYY 1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026 SEA @ NYY 5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026 SEA @ NYY 1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026 NYY @ SEA 5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026 NYY @ SEA 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.693
OPS
▲ 1.041
182 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +119.5% more
New York: 9.0 vs Seattle: 4.1
Hits (L5) +32.8% more
New York: 8.7 vs Seattle: 6.6
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
New York: 0.5 vs Seattle: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +30.9% more
New York: 15.9 vs Seattle: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.7 1
NYY Score 3.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 6.6 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.1 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 12.1 5.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.1 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -150 → +147 / -158 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
9%TICKETS91%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SEA
NYY
SEA
ML
47% 76-85
50% 81-81
52% 85-77
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 98-64
53% 86-76
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 81-73-7
56% 85-67-10
53% 82-72-7
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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