PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
59-64 | Road
13
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
62-60 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | 11-5 | 4.08 | 1.16 | 132.1 | 145 |
| Tyler Phillips | 3-5 | 3.47 | 1.36 | 93.1 | 70 |
11-5
W-L
3-5
4.08
ERA
Ldr 3.47
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
132.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
93.1
145 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
70
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
44%
MARLINS
56%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (MIA)
PIRATES
54%
Book Odds: -119
MARLINS
47%
Book Odds: +111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
Over 8.0
49%
Under 8.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.2%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.8%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
4.3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
PIT @ MIA
13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026
PIT @ MIA
2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026
PIT @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026
MIA @ PIT
4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
MIA @ PIT
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734
▲
OPS
.727
186
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+141.1% more
Miami: 4.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.9
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
Miami: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+71.5% more
Miami: 14.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.4
Hits (L5)
+42.8% more
Miami: 8.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.7
13
MIA Score
4.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.2
3.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.2
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 8.4
6.0 / 31.0
Walks
4.6 / 1.9
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +108
→
-119 / +111
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PIT
MIA
PIT
ML
48%
78-84
52%
82-77
55%
88-72
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
86-73
54%
86-74
50%
81-82
TTL
56%
88-69-5
47%
72-81-6
53%
82-73-5
50%
79-78-6
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