CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
59-63 | Road
0
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
60-61 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 9-6 | 2.57 | 1.04 | 136.2 | 136 |
| Keider Montero | 8-7 | 3.38 | 1.01 | 122.1 | 86 |
9-6
W-L
8-7
2.57 Ldr
ERA
3.38
1.04
WHIP
Ldr 1.01
136.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
122.1
136 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
86
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
36%
TIGERS
64%
▲ Edge: +13.90% (DET)
GUARDIANS
52%
Book Odds: -108
TIGERS
50%
Book Odds: +100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.9%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Detroit
5.1
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.9% more
Detroit: 8.5
vs
Cleveland: 6.7
Home Runs (Season)
+11.7% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.4% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+2.4%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.5
0
DET Score
5.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.0
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 6.7
8.0 / 0.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 14.3
10.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.8 / 6.4
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -121 / +101
→
-108 / +100
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CLE
DET
CLE
ML
54%
86-73
54%
87-75
54%
87-73
49%
80-83
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
93-69
57%
91-69
58%
95-68
TTL
46%
69-81-9
56%
89-71-2
46%
69-81-10
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox