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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

57-62  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Aug 12 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

62-57  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Rhett Lowder
STARTING PITCHER

Rhett Lowder

#25 | Starting Pitcher
@
Luis Castillo
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Castillo

#58 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Rhett Lowder 4-7 5.26 1.48 89.0 73
Luis Castillo 3-9 5.30 1.41 103.2 91
4-7 W-L 3-9
5.26 Ldr ERA 5.30
1.48 WHIP Ldr 1.41
89.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 103.2
73 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 91
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
41%
📊
WHITE SOX
59%
REDS 43% Book Odds: +133
WHITE SOX 59% Book Odds: -144
Book Implied: 42.90% / 59%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.5 64%
Under 8.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (+1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (-1.5)
Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

58.9%

White Sox Cover

41.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.9%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHW By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
5.4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI White Sox Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CIN @ CHW 9 - 8
Aug 12, 2026 CIN @ CHW 0 - 5
Aug 11, 2026 CIN @ CHW 5 - 4
May 15, 2025 CHW @ CIN 1 - 7
May 14, 2025 CHW @ CIN 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.699
OPS
▲ .826
213 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +60.2% more
Chicago: 3.4 vs Cincinnati: 2.1
Home Runs (L5) +53.4% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs Cincinnati: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season) +46.0% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Total Bases (L5) +37.6% more
Chicago: 14.6 vs Cincinnati: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.5 0
CHW Score 5.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 6.1 11.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 9.3 6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 10.6 19.0 / 2.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.1 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -144 → +133 / -144
30%TICKETS70%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
35%TICKETS65%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 8.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CIN
CHW
CIN
ML
48% 81-87
55% 88-71
56% 94-74
49% 79-81
ATS
59% 99-69
54% 86-73
55% 93-75
50% 80-80
TTL
58% 97-69-2
53% 81-73-5
51% 85-81-2
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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