NEW YORK
METSNYM
53-69 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
73-48 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Thornton
#49 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Thornton | 3-2 | 2.52 | 1.07 | 39.1 | 27 |
| Tyler Mahle | 3-9 | 4.83 | 1.36 | 100.2 | 98 |
3-2
W-L
3-9
2.52 Ldr
ERA
4.83
1.07 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
39.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 100.2
27
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 98
AI Model Win Probability
METS
74%
BRAVES
26%
▲ Edge: +36.40% (NYM)
METS
38%
Book Odds: +164
BRAVES
64%
Book Odds: -180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 8.5
58%
Under 8.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
11.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
5.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
3.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mets
Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim
Braves
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.8
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.705
OPS
▲
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+26.9% more
New York: 8.6
vs
Atlanta: 6.3
Walks (L5)
+24.1% more
New York: 4.9
vs
Atlanta: 3.7
Total Bases (L5)
+13.3% more
New York: 13.5
vs
Atlanta: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
6.0
3
ATL Score
3.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 8.6
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.1
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.3
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 13.5
24.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.9
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -157
→
+164 / -180
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46%
77-90
50%
79-80
54%
90-78
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-66
52%
87-81
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
80-66-13
49%
76-80-11
51%
74-72-13
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