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SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

56-65  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Aug 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

68-52  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Bryce Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Miller

#50 | Starting Pitcher
@
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryce Miller 4-6 3.08 0.95 79.0 79
Will Warren 8-6 4.18 1.37 114.0 114
4-6 W-L 8-6
3.08 Ldr ERA 4.18
0.95 Ldr WHIP 1.37
79.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 114.0
79 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 114
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
55%
📊
YANKEES
45%
▲ Edge: +10.20% (SEA)
MARINERS 45% Book Odds: +123
YANKEES 57% Book Odds: -133
Book Implied: 44.80% / 57.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 8.5 43%
Under 8.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (+1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

55.0%

Yankees Cover

45.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.1%

SEA By 3-4 runs

15.0%

NYY By 1-2 runs

17.5%

NYY By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.5
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 SEA @ NYY 1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026 SEA @ NYY 5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026 SEA @ NYY 1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026 NYY @ SEA 5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026 NYY @ SEA 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.693
OPS
▲ 1.041
182 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs New York: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +119.5% more
New York: 9.0 vs Seattle: 4.1
Walks (L5) +39.1% more
New York: 3.8 vs Seattle: 2.7
Total Bases (L5) +30.2% more
New York: 11.3 vs Seattle: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.0 5
NYY Score 3.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 5.3 13.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 8.2 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 8.7 25.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.7 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126 → +123 / -133 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
38%TICKETS62%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SEA
NYY
SEA
ML
47% 76-85
50% 81-81
52% 85-77
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 98-64
53% 86-76
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 81-73-7
56% 85-67-10
53% 82-72-7
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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