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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

71-50  |  Road

12
FINAL
Wed, Aug 12 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

59-63  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
David Peterson
STARTING PITCHER

David Peterson

#19 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Kent

#25 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Peterson 6-7 5.35 1.50 106.0 88
Jackson Kent 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
6-7 W-L 0-0
5.35 ERA Ldr 0.00
1.50 WHIP Ldr 0.00
106.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
88 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
47%
📊
NATIONALS
53%
▲ Edge: +12.10% (WSH)
CUBS 61% Book Odds: -155
NATIONALS 41% Book Odds: +143
Book Implied: 60.80% / 41.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 9.5 64%
Under 9.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Washington)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

46.0%

Nationals Cover

54.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

12.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
5.7
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.374
OPS
▲ .744
0
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21000.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +457.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +37.0%
Washington: 74.4% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +27.8%
Washington: 42.3% vs Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.3 12
WSH Score 5.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.0 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.2 / 10.6 11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 2.0 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.9 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.1 / 18.8 18.0 / 28.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.5 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135 → -155 / +143 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
70%TICKETS30%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHC
WSH
CHC
ML
57% 92-69
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
52% 81-74-6
42% 65-90-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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