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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

58-64  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Aug 12 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

62-59  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Janson Junk
STARTING PITCHER

Janson Junk

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carmen Mlodzinski 6-4 3.51 1.36 97.1 77
Janson Junk 5-7 4.63 1.36 81.2 62
6-4 W-L 5-7
3.51 Ldr ERA 4.63
1.36 WHIP 1.36
97.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 81.2
77 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 62
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
57%
📊
MARLINS
43%
▲ Edge: +9.60% (PIT)
PIRATES 48% Book Odds: +109
MARLINS 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 47.80% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.0 54%
Under 8.0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (+1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

57.9%

Marlins Cover

42.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.4%

PIT By 3-4 runs

15.8%

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.8%

MIA By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Marlins Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 PIT @ MIA 13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026 PIT @ MIA 2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026 PIT @ MIA 0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026 MIA @ PIT 4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026 MIA @ PIT 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734 ▲
OPS
.727
186 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0 vs Miami: 0.8
Home Runs (Season) +9.7% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season) +6.8% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Miami: 4.4
OPS (Season) +0.7%
Pittsburgh: 73.4% vs Miami: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.6 2
MIA Score 3.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 6.3 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 9.7 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 9.1 17.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.0 / 1.9 8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → +109 / -118
40%TICKETS60%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PIT
MIA
PIT
ML
48% 78-84
52% 82-77
55% 88-72
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 91-71
54% 86-73
54% 86-74
50% 81-82
TTL
56% 88-69-5
47% 72-81-6
53% 82-73-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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