CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
59-62 | Road
6
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
59-61 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Foster Griffin
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Framber Valdez
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Griffin | 12-4 | 3.31 | 1.11 | 133.1 | 122 |
| Framber Valdez | 7-7 | 4.17 | 1.37 | 127.1 | 103 |
12-4
W-L
7-7
3.31 Ldr
ERA
4.17
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
133.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
127.1
122 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
103
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
36%
TIGERS
64%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (DET)
GUARDIANS
46%
Book Odds: +116
TIGERS
55%
Book Odds: -124
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.0
63%
Under 8.0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.9%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.9
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Detroit
5.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+11.7% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.4% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+2.4%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Detroit: 40.0%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.9
6
DET Score
5.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 8.6
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.5
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 12.9
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.7 / 6.0
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -132
→
+116 / -124
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CLE
DET
CLE
ML
54%
86-73
54%
87-74
54%
87-73
49%
80-82
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
93-68
57%
91-69
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
69-81-9
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-10
43%
69-90-2
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