Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Giants HOU @ SF

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

62-60  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Aug 12 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

50-71  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Adrian Houser
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Houser

#12 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan King 2-3 3.83 1.36 49.1 40
Adrian Houser 3-7 4.55 1.37 97.0 65
2-3 W-L 3-7
3.83 Ldr ERA 4.55
1.36 Ldr WHIP 1.37
49.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 97.0
40 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 65
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
50%
📊
GIANTS
50%
▲ Edge: +6.90% (SF)
ASTROS 59% Book Odds: -141
GIANTS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 58.50% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.0 62%
Under 8.0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (San Francisco)
AstrosHOU (-1.5) 0 GiantsSF (+1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

48.0%

Giants Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.0%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 HOU @ SF 2 - 1
Aug 11, 2026 HOU @ SF 1 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 HOU @ SF 6 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 SF @ HOU 6 - 3
Apr 1, 2025 SF @ HOU 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.582
OPS
▲ .706
4
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4350.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +37.7% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Houston: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +30.0% more
San Francisco: 1.0 vs Houston: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +18.9% more
San Francisco: 11.3 vs Houston: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.8 2
SF Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 6.3 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 7.7 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 9.5 5.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.5 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119 → -141 / +130 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
68%TICKETS32%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
HOU
SF
HOU
ML
49% 79-81
50% 81-82
53% 85-75
47% 77-87
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 91-72
52% 83-77
55% 90-74
TTL
55% 82-68-10
45% 70-84-9
46% 68-81-11
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 59 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 48 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 58 minutes ago
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
bleacherreport 19 hours, 59 minutes ago
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago