Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Diamondbacks COL @ ARI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

48-73  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Aug 12 • 3:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

64-58  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Feltner
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Feltner

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Merrill Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Merrill Kelly

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Feltner 4-6 5.71 1.45 82.0 59
Merrill Kelly 8-9 4.88 1.47 120.0 80
4-6 W-L 8-9
5.71 ERA Ldr 4.88
1.45 Ldr WHIP 1.47
82.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 120.0
59 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 80
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
47%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (COL)
ROCKIES 38% Book Odds: +161
DIAMONDBACKS 63% Book Odds: -173
Book Implied: 38.30% / 63.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 9.0 49%
Under 9.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

53.0%

Diamondbacks Cover

47.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

17.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

12.7%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
4.6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim Diamondbacks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +30.0% more
Arizona: 1.3 vs Colorado: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +16.3% more
Arizona: 15.0 vs Colorado: 12.9
Errors (L5) +60.0% more
Colorado: 0.6 vs Arizona: 0.0
Walks (L5) +24.4% more
Colorado: 3.1 vs Arizona: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.3 6
ARI Score 4.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.6 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 6.3 3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 12.9 17.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.1 10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +149 / -181 → +161 / -173 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
12%TICKETS88%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 59 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 12 hours, 55 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 13 hours ago
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
newschannel10 2 days ago