PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
64-58 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
61-60 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 10-3 | 2.69 | 0.98 | 110.1 | 132 |
| Kyle Leahy | 8-4 | 3.45 | 1.34 | 112.1 | 99 |
10-3
W-L
8-4
2.69 Ldr
ERA
3.45
0.98 Ldr
WHIP
1.34
110.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 112.1
132 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
99
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
69%
CARDINALS
31%
▲ Edge: +7.60% (PHI)
PHILLIES
62%
Book Odds: -162
CARDINALS
40%
Book Odds: +148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 8.0
49%
Under 8.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.7%
STL By 1-2 runs
13.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
2.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cardinals
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.724
▲
OPS
.691
3
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+54.5% more
Philadelphia: 6.2
vs
St. Louis: 2.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.2% more
Philadelphia: 9.0
vs
St. Louis: 8.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+6.0%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+3.3%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.0
1
STL Score
2.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.5
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.0
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 10.8
11.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.8 / 6.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -156 / +129
→
-162 / +148
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PHI
STL
PHI
ML
53%
85-74
59%
97-67
52%
84-77
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
89-70
65%
107-57
53%
85-76
51%
83-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
57%
88-67-9
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-76-9
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