Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Sevilla vs Rayo Sevilla vs Rayo

SEVILLASEVILLA

4-1-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

RAYORAYO

2-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
SEVILLA
49%
DRAW
24%
RAYO
27%
▲ Edge: +11.90% (Rayo Vallecano)
36% Book Odds: +175
DRAW 35% Book Odds: +186
32% Book Odds: +216
Book Implied: 36.40% / 35% / 31.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.9
Projected
Book Total
2.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 2.0 71%
Under 2.0 29%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.5
SEVILLA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Sevilla)
SevillaSevilla (0) 0 RayoRayo (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.0% / 51.0%

Shots (On Goal)

13(4) / 6(3)

Corners

1 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

4/1 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

63.1%

Cover

36.9%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Sevilla -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sevilla)

Sevilla By 1 goal

24.8%

Sevilla By 2+ goals

25.2%

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

16.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.7
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
1.2
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sevilla Win
56% Win Prob
B
Sim Sevilla Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sevilla (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
C
Sim Sevilla (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.0 Win
Proj Total: 2.9
B
Sim o2.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 15, 2026 Sevilla vs Rayo 2 - 1
Mar 8, 2026 Sevilla vs Rayo 1 - 1
Sep 28, 2025 Rayo vs Sevilla 0 - 1
Mar 1, 2025 Rayo vs Sevilla 1 - 1
Nov 24, 2024 Sevilla vs Rayo 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
Sevilla: 6.0 vs Rayo: 5.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Rayo: 1.0 vs Sevilla: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Rayo: 2.0 vs Sevilla: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +16.7% more
Rayo: 6.0 vs Sevilla: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Rayo Vallecano Score 1.2 1
Sevilla Score 1.7 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 49.1% Draw: 23.9% Away Win: 27.0%
Sevilla (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 55.4% Under 2.5: 44.6%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.90
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sevilla Share: 58.6% Rayo Vallecano Share: 41.4%
AI Projected Score 1.7 - 1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
ML
86% 6-1
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
ATS
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
54% 3-3
71% 5-2
TTL
43% 3-4
33% 2-4-1
86% 6-1
33% 2-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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