Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Alavés vs Getafe Alavés vs Getafe

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-2  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 1:30 PM ET
Mendizorrotza

GETAFEGETAFE

2-2-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ALAVÉS
58%
DRAW
20%
GETAFE
22%
▲ Edge: +7.40% (Getafe)
42% Book Odds: +139
DRAW 35% Book Odds: +183
26% Book Odds: +292
Book Implied: 41.80% / 35.30% / 25.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.5
Projected
Book Total
1.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 1.75 99%
Under 1.75 1%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.9
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 goals (Alavés)
AlavésAlavés (-0.2) 0 GetafeGetafe (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

51.8% / 48.2%

Shots (On Goal)

18(8) / 6(2)

Corners

5 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

72.6%

Cover

27.4%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Alavés By 1 goal

26.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

34.5%

Getafe By 1 goal

12.1%

Getafe By 2+ goals

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1
1.3
GETAFE
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1
0
GETAFE
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alavés Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Alavés Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Alavés (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
B
Sim Alavés (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o1.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.5
A
Sim u1.8 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 15, 2026 Alavés vs Getafe 3 - 0
Feb 8, 2026 Alavés vs Getafe 0 - 2
Sep 24, 2025 Getafe vs Alavés 1 - 1
Feb 9, 2025 Alavés vs Getafe 0 - 1
Sep 28, 2024 Getafe vs Alavés 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Alavés: 1.0 vs Getafe: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Alavés: 2.0 vs Getafe: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Alavés: 2.0 vs Getafe: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +75.0% more
Alavés: 4.0 vs Getafe: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Getafe Score 1.3 0
Alavés Score 2.2 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 57.8% Draw: 20.2% Away Win: 22.0%
Alavés (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 67.9% Under 2.5: 32.1%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.50
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Alavés Share: 62.9% Getafe Share: 37.1%
AI Projected Score 2.2 - 1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Alavés
Getafe
Alavés
Getafe
ML
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
ATS
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
TTL
50% 3-3-1
57% 4-3
27% 1-4-1
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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