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ATLASATLAS

5-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Jalisco

TIGRESTIGRES

2-4-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATLAS
51%
DRAW
26%
TIGRES
23%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (Tigres UANL)
31% Book Odds: +225
DRAW 31% Book Odds: +224
42% Book Odds: +140
Book Implied: 30.80% / 30.90% / 41.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.4
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 2.25 41%
Under 2.25 59%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.6
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Atlas)
AtlasAtlas (+0.2) 0 TigresTigres (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.4% / 54.6%

Shots (On Goal)

8(3) / 25(7)

Corners

2 / 16

Cards (Y/R)

2/1 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

65.5%

Cover

34.5%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Atlas By 1 goal

25.2%

Atlas By 2+ goals

27.4%

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

15.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.5
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1
0.9
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
0
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Atlas Win
54% Win Prob
B
Sim Tigres UANL Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlas (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
B
Sim Tigres UANL (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Win
Proj Total: 2.4
D
Sim u2.3 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 15, 2026 Atlas vs Tigres 2 - 1
Apr 22, 2026 Atlas vs Tigres 0 - 0
Sep 24, 2025 Tigres vs Atlas 2 - 0
Feb 8, 2025 Tigres vs Atlas 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2024 Atlas vs Tigres 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 1.0 vs Tigres: 0.0
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Atlas: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs Atlas: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +60.0% more
Tigres: 5.0 vs Atlas: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tigres UANL Score 0.9 1
Atlas Score 1.5 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 51.3% Draw: 26.1% Away Win: 22.6%
Atlas (Home) vs Tigres UANL (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 43.0% Under 2.5: 57.0%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.40
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlas Share: 62.5% Tigres UANL Share: 37.5%
AI Projected Score 1.5 - 0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlas
Tigres UANL
Atlas
Tigres UANL
ML
60% 6-4
40% 4-6
40% 4-6
10% 1-9
ATS
47% 4-5
72% 6-2-1
42% 4-5
29% 2-6-1
TTL
80% 8-2
30% 3-7
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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