MONTERREYMONTERREY
4-1-4 | Home
6
JUÁREZJUÁREZ
1-0-9 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
MONTERREY
32%
DRAW
26%
JUÁREZ
42%
▲ Edge: +19.30% (FC Juárez)
66%
Book Odds: -198
DRAW
21%
Book Odds: +382
17%
Book Odds: +500
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.6
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.7 (Under)
Over 3.25
11%
Under 3.25
89%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.2
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 goals (Juárez)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
61.8% / 38.2%
Shots (On Goal)
28(10) / 4(1)
Corners
10 / 1
Cards (Y/R)
0/0 - 0/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)
Monterrey By 1 goal
19.2%
Monterrey By 2+ goals
12.9%
FC Juárez By 1 goal
22.8%
FC Juárez By 2+ goals
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Monterrey
1.2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 2.20
Juárez
1.4
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
Monterrey
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 2.20
Juárez
0
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
FC Juárez
Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim
Monterrey
Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
FC Juárez (+1.25)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
A
Sim
Monterrey (-1.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u3.25
Loss
Proj Total: 2.6
B
Sim
u3.3
Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 15, 2026
Monterrey vs Juárez
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5)
+150.0% more
Monterrey: 4.0
vs
Juárez: 10.0
Losses (L5)
+100.0% more
Monterrey: 1.0
vs
Juárez: 2.0
Wins (L5)
+50.0% more
Monterrey: 3.0
vs
Juárez: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+16.7% more
Monterrey: 7.0
vs
Juárez: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FC Juárez Score
1.4
1
Monterrey Score
1.2
6
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Monterrey (Home)
vs
FC Juárez (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.60
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.2 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Monterrey
FC Juárez
Monterrey
FC Juárez
ML
44%
4-5
60%
6-4
44%
4-5
70%
7-3
ATS
53%
4-4
38%
3-5-2
44%
4-5
78%
7-2-1
TTL
44%
4-5
56%
5-4-1
44%
4-5
78%
7-2-1