Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlante vs Toluca Atlante vs Toluca

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

TOLUCATOLUCA

6-2-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ATLANTE
32%
DRAW
23%
TOLUCA
45%
▲ Edge: +44.20% (Atlante)
18% Book Odds: +466
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +325
63% Book Odds: -167
Book Implied: 17.70% / 23.50% / 62.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.3
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 3.0 42%
Under 3.0 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+0.3
ATLANTE
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 goals (Atlante)
AtlanteAtlante (+1) 0 TolucaToluca (-1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

42.7% / 57.3%

Shots (On Goal)

14(5) / 11(2)

Corners

8 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

42.1%

Cover

57.9%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlante +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlante)

Atlante By 1 goal

18.2%

Atlante By 2+ goals

11.5%

Toluca By 1 goal

23.5%

Toluca By 2+ goals

21.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1.5
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1
1.8
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
0
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toluca Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Toluca Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlante (+1) Win
Proj Goals: +0.3
C
Sim Toluca (+1) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.3
D
Sim u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 15, 2026 Atlante vs Toluca 0 - 0
Apr 22, 2026 Atlante vs Toluca 4 - 3
Sep 27, 2025 Toluca vs Atlante 3 - 1
Jan 24, 2025 Atlante vs Toluca 2 - 1
Jul 17, 2024 Toluca vs Atlante 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Toluca: 10.0 vs Atlante: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +66.7% more
Toluca: 6.0 vs Atlante: 10.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Toluca: 3.0 vs Atlante: 2.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atlante: 1.0 vs Toluca: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score 1.8 0
Atlante Score 1.5 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 32.3% Draw: 22.8% Away Win: 44.9%
Atlante (Home) vs Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 64.1% Under 2.5: 35.9%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.30
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlante Share: 45.5% Toluca Share: 54.5%
AI Projected Score 1.5 - 1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlante
Toluca
Atlante
Toluca
ML
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
10% 1-9
60% 6-4
ATS
59% 5-3-1
50% 4-4-2
27% 2-5-2
75% 6-2-2
TTL
20% 2-8
33% 3-6-1
70% 7-3
67% 6-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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