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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

73-46  |  Road

12
FINAL
Tue, Aug 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

47-73  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Nick Martinez
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Martinez

#28 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Barnett

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Martinez 11-3 2.65 1.10 129.0 73
Mason Barnett 1-2 5.56 1.38 34.0 36
11-3 W-L 1-2
2.65 Ldr ERA 5.56
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.38
129.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 34.0
73 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 36
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
57%
📊
ATHLETICS
43%
▲ Edge: +6.60% (ATH)
RAYS 66% Book Odds: -190
ATHLETICS 37% Book Odds: +173
Book Implied: 65.50% / 36.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.4 (Under)
Over 10.5 22%
Under 10.5 78%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Athletics)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

43.1%

Athletics Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.4%

TB By 3-4 runs

15.5%

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.9
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 6
3.2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
6
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 6
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim Rays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.1
A
Sim u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 ATH @ TB 1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026 ATH @ TB 3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026 ATH @ TB 1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 TB @ ATH 8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 TB @ ATH 12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728 ▲
OPS
.719
169
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +31.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3 vs Athletics: 0.9
Walks (L5) +27.4% more
Tampa Bay: 2.6 vs Athletics: 1.9
Hits (L5) +21.6% more
Tampa Bay: 10.5 vs Athletics: 8.2
Total Bases (L5) +13.9% more
Tampa Bay: 15.8 vs Athletics: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.9 12
ATH Score 3.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 10.5 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 6.1 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 15.8 12.0 / 29.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.6 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135 → -190 / +173 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
93%TICKETS7%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10 → 10.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TB
ATH
TB
ML
59% 95-67
58% 95-68
54% 87-74
58% 95-68
ATS
52% 84-78
60% 97-66
50% 81-80
55% 90-73
TTL
54% 84-73-5
47% 73-81-9
42% 66-90-5
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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