MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
74-46 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
64-57 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Harrison
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison | 9-2 | 2.84 | 1.04 | 88.2 | 111 |
| Walker Buehler | 6-5 | 5.07 | 1.46 | 108.1 | 95 |
9-2
W-L
6-5
2.84 Ldr
ERA
5.07
1.04 Ldr
WHIP
1.46
88.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 108.1
111 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
95
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
66%
PADRES
34%
▲ Edge: +10.10% (MIL)
BREWERS
56%
Book Odds: -126
PADRES
46%
Book Odds: +116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
74%
Under 7.5
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
14.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.9
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
San Diego
4.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.341
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.743
OPS
▲
.925
154
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.4% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+27.4% more
Milwaukee: 3.9
vs
San Diego: 2.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.5% more
Milwaukee: 8.8
vs
San Diego: 6.5
Home Runs (L5)
+66.4% more
San Diego: 1.9
vs
Milwaukee: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.9
2
SD Score
4.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.2
17.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.1
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 8.8
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 12.0
28.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.9
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119
→
-126 / +116
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIL
SD
MIL
ML
51%
85-83
62%
101-61
51%
85-82
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
94-68
55%
92-75
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
82-80-6
40%
62-92-8
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-77-8
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