CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
57-61 | Road
5
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
61-57 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 3-2 | 4.60 | 1.47 | 62.2 | 50 |
| Sean Burke | 7-6 | 3.08 | 1.12 | 128.2 | 144 |
3-2
W-L
7-6
4.60
ERA
Ldr 3.08
1.47
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
62.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 128.2
50
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 144
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
35%
WHITE SOX
65%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (CHW)
REDS
42%
Book Odds: +139
WHITE SOX
60%
Book Odds: -151
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 7.5
69%
Under 7.5
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.4%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.9
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
Chicago
5.7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
CIN @ CHW
9 - 8
Aug 12, 2026
CIN @ CHW
0 - 5
Aug 11, 2026
CIN @ CHW
5 - 4
May 15, 2025
CHW @ CIN
1 - 7
May 14, 2025
CHW @ CIN
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.699
OPS
▲
.826
213
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Walks (L5)
+44.6% more
Chicago: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 3.2
Hits (L5)
+29.0% more
Chicago: 7.2
vs
Cincinnati: 5.6
Total Bases (L5)
+23.9% more
Chicago: 12.9
vs
Cincinnati: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.9
5
CHW Score
5.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 5.6
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.4
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 10.4
18.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.2
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+139 / -151
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CIN
CHW
CIN
ML
49%
81-86
55%
88-71
56%
94-73
49%
79-81
ATS
59%
99-68
54%
86-73
56%
93-74
50%
80-80
TTL
58%
96-69-2
53%
81-73-5
51%
84-81-2
54%
83-72-5
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