BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
58-62 | Road
5
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
59-62 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | 8-3 | 3.43 | 1.31 | 107.2 | 89 |
| Bailey Ober | 7-3 | 4.45 | 1.22 | 93.0 | 63 |
8-3
W-L
7-3
3.43 Ldr
ERA
4.45
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
107.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
93.0
89 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
63
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
58%
TWINS
42%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (BAL)
ORIOLES
50%
Book Odds: +102
TWINS
52%
Book Odds: -109
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.9 (Under)
Over 9.0
42%
Under 9.0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.1%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
3.6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026
MIN @ BAL
6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026
MIN @ BAL
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Minnesota
MIN
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
Baltimore: 0.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+6.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Minnesota: 187.0
Walks (L5)
+49.8% more
Minnesota: 3.7
vs
Baltimore: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.2% more
Minnesota: 10.3
vs
Baltimore: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
5
MIN Score
3.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 8.2
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.3
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 8.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 14.7
8.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
+102 / -109
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BAL
MIN
BAL
ML
52%
84-78
53%
83-73
50%
80-81
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
95-67
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
78-75-9
54%
81-70-5
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-75-6
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