BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
64-55 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
58-63 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | 1-0 | 3.38 | 1.67 | 24.0 | 25 |
| Dylan Cease | 7-5 | 2.28 | 1.04 | 126.1 | 184 |
1-0
W-L
7-5
3.38
ERA
Ldr 2.28
1.67
WHIP
Ldr 1.04
24.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 126.1
25
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 184
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
43%
BLUE JAYS
57%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (TOR)
RED SOX
45%
Book Odds: +122
BLUE JAYS
57%
Book Odds: -133
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 7.0
54%
Under 7.0
46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.9%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Toronto
4.1
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Boston
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+300.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+48.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Boston: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+28.3%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.2
3
TOR Score
4.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.6
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 6.9
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 12.1
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.2 / 4.3
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +121 / -146
→
+122 / -133
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
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