SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
56-64 | Road
1
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
67-52 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Woo
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Weathers
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | 8-8 | 4.31 | 1.12 | 127.1 | 127 |
| Ryan Weathers | 5-7 | 3.79 | 1.22 | 121.0 | 132 |
8-8
W-L
5-7
4.31
ERA
Ldr 3.79
1.12 Ldr
WHIP
1.22
127.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
121.0
127
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 132
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
44%
YANKEES
56%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (NYY)
MARINERS
47%
Book Odds: +115
YANKEES
56%
Book Odds: -125
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 8.0
57%
Under 8.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.2%
SEA By 3-4 runs
11.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
4.6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.6
B
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
SEA @ NYY
5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.693
OPS
▲
1.041
182
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+119.5% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Walks (L5)
+62.1% more
New York: 4.2
vs
Seattle: 2.6
Home Runs (L5)
+41.0% more
New York: 1.2
vs
Seattle: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.5% more
New York: 10.7
vs
Seattle: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.0
1
NYY Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 6.5
8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.3
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 10.1
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.6
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+115 / -125
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SEA
NYY
SEA
ML
47%
76-85
50%
81-81
52%
85-77
52%
85-77
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
98-64
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-7
56%
85-67-10
53%
82-72-7
53%
81-71-10
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