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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

70-50  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Aug 11 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

59-62  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shota Imanaga 8-9 3.60 1.09 132.2 125
Jake Irvin 2-5 5.37 1.29 62.0 62
8-9 W-L 2-5
3.60 Ldr ERA 5.37
1.09 Ldr WHIP 1.29
132.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 62.0
125 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 62
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
65%
📊
NATIONALS
35%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (CHC)
CUBS 62% Book Odds: -164
NATIONALS 40% Book Odds: +153
Book Implied: 62.10% / 39.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 9.0 67%
Under 9.0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+1.5)
Chicago Cubs (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

66.5%

Nationals Cover

33.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

14.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

8.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
4.6
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.9
A
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.374
OPS
▲ .744
0
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +40.0% more
Chicago: 1.5 vs Washington: 0.9
Walks (L5) +32.8% more
Chicago: 3.2 vs Washington: 2.1
Total Bases (L5) +19.7% more
Chicago: 18.2 vs Washington: 14.6
Hits (L5) +14.6% more
Chicago: 11.5 vs Washington: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 6.3 8
WSH Score 4.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 11.5 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.5 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 6.8 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 18.2 22.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.2 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -171 / +141 → -164 / +153 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
80%TICKETS20%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
70%TICKETS30%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHC
WSH
CHC
ML
57% 92-69
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
52% 81-74-6
42% 65-90-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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