Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Marlins PIT @ MIA

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

58-63  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Aug 11 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

61-59  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Paul Skenes
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Skenes

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Eury Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Eury Perez

#39 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Paul Skenes 9-10 3.96 1.12 129.2 162
Eury Perez 5-9 3.61 1.13 109.2 121
9-10 W-L 5-9
3.96 ERA Ldr 3.61
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.13
129.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 109.2
162 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 121
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
40%
📊
MARLINS
60%
▲ Edge: +9.90% (MIA)
PIRATES 51% Book Odds: -105
MARLINS 51% Book Odds: -102
Book Implied: 51.20% / 50.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 7.0 63%
Under 7.0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Miami)
PiratesPIT (-1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

39.2%

Marlins Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.1%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.3%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
4.7
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Marlins Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.3
B
Sim u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 PIT @ MIA 13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026 PIT @ MIA 2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026 PIT @ MIA 0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026 MIA @ PIT 4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026 MIA @ PIT 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734 ▲
OPS
.727
186 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +86.9% more
Miami: 3.4 vs Pittsburgh: 1.8
Errors (L5) +73.0% more
Miami: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.5
Hits (L5) +43.5% more
Miami: 10.7 vs Pittsburgh: 7.4
Total Bases (L5) +34.3% more
Miami: 15.6 vs Pittsburgh: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.6 0
MIA Score 4.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.7 / 7.4 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 10.1 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 11.6 8.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.4 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100 → -105 / -102
53%TICKETS47%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
43%TICKETS57%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PIT
MIA
PIT
ML
48% 78-84
52% 82-77
55% 88-72
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 91-71
54% 86-73
54% 86-74
50% 81-82
TTL
56% 88-69-5
47% 72-81-6
53% 82-73-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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