CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
58-62 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
59-60 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Anderson
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 4-11 | 3.85 | 1.13 | 138.0 | 110 |
| Drew Anderson | 4-4 | 4.01 | 1.29 | 67.1 | 78 |
4-11
W-L
4-4
3.85 Ldr
ERA
4.01
1.13 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
138.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
67.1
110 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
78
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
32%
TIGERS
68%
▲ Edge: +10.60% (DET)
GUARDIANS
44%
Book Odds: +126
TIGERS
58%
Book Odds: -136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
60%
Under 8.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.8%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.50
Detroit
5.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.50
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Tigers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+12.5% more
Detroit: 9.4
vs
Cleveland: 8.4
Home Runs (Season)
+11.7% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Total Bases (L5)
+10.2% more
Detroit: 13.1
vs
Cleveland: 11.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.4% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.5
4
DET Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.4
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.8
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 11.8
8.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.5 / 5.6
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -126
→
+126 / -136
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CLE
DET
CLE
ML
54%
86-73
54%
87-74
54%
87-73
49%
80-82
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
93-68
57%
91-69
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
69-81-9
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-10
43%
69-90-2
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