KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
49-71 | Road
5
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
71-48 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Noah Cameron
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tarik Skubal
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | 6-8 | 4.37 | 1.29 | 123.2 | 116 |
| Tarik Skubal | 7-6 | 2.81 | 0.92 | 102.2 | 122 |
6-8
W-L
7-6
4.37
ERA
Ldr 2.81
1.29
WHIP
Ldr 0.92
123.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
102.2
116
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 122
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
24%
DODGERS
76%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (LAD)
ROYALS
29%
Book Odds: +242
DODGERS
73%
Book Odds: -272
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
57%
Under 7.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
KC By 1-2 runs
10.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
5.4%
LAD By 1-2 runs
18.4%
LAD By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
2.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 2.80
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 2.80
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers
Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Royals
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
KC @ LAD
2 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
KC @ LAD
4 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
KC @ LAD
5 - 6
Jun 29, 2025
LAD @ KC
5 - 1
Jun 28, 2025
LAD @ KC
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.718
OPS
▲
.762
170
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.8% more
Los Angeles: 8.7
vs
Kansas City: 6.1
Home Runs (Season)
+20.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Walks (L5)
+15.4% more
Los Angeles: 3.4
vs
Kansas City: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
2.5
5
LAD Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.4
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 6.1
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 13.0
15.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.0
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +235 / -295
→
+242 / -272
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
KC
LAD
KC
ML
56%
92-73
55%
89-72
48%
79-87
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
98-67
57%
91-70
43%
72-94
58%
93-67
TTL
48%
77-82-6
58%
90-64-7
44%
70-90-6
54%
83-70-7
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