Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Giants HOU @ SF

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

61-59  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Aug 10 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

49-70  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Hayden Wesneski
STARTING PITCHER

Hayden Wesneski

#39 | Starting Pitcher
@
Blade Tidwell
STARTING PITCHER

Blade Tidwell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hayden Wesneski 2-0 3.86 1.29 11.2 8
Blade Tidwell 0-0 3.18 1.18 17.0 13
2-0 W-L 0-0
3.86 ERA Ldr 3.18
1.29 WHIP Ldr 1.18
11.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 17.0
8 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 13
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
40%
📊
GIANTS
60%
▲ Edge: +16.70% (SF)
ASTROS 59% Book Odds: -143
GIANTS 43% Book Odds: +132
Book Implied: 58.80% / 43.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.5 68%
Under 8.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (San Francisco)
AstrosHOU (-1.5) 0 GiantsSF (+1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

39.2%

Giants Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

HOU By 1-2 runs

16.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

10.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
5.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Giants Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
A
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 HOU @ SF 2 - 1
Aug 11, 2026 HOU @ SF 1 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 HOU @ SF 6 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 SF @ HOU 6 - 3
Apr 1, 2025 SF @ HOU 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.582
OPS
▲ .706
4
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4350.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5) +44.4% more
San Francisco: 4.4 vs Houston: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +37.7% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Houston: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5) +18.8% more
San Francisco: 9.2 vs Houston: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.4 6
SF Score 5.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 6.5 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.8 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.5 / 11.2 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.0 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -156 / +129 → -143 / +132 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
73%TICKETS27%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
HOU
SF
HOU
ML
49% 79-81
50% 81-82
53% 85-75
47% 77-87
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 91-72
52% 83-77
55% 90-74
TTL
55% 82-68-10
45% 70-84-9
46% 68-81-11
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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