Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Diamondbacks COL @ ARI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

46-73  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Aug 10 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

64-56  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Gabriel Hughes
STARTING PITCHER

Gabriel Hughes

#43 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael Soroka
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Soroka

#34 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gabriel Hughes 0-3 4.25 1.18 29.2 28
Michael Soroka 8-3 3.07 1.09 82.0 79
0-3 W-L 8-3
4.25 ERA Ldr 3.07
1.18 WHIP Ldr 1.09
29.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 82.0
28 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 79
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
39%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
61%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (COL)
ROCKIES 35% Book Odds: +185
DIAMONDBACKS 67% Book Odds: -204
Book Implied: 35.10% / 67.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

61.8%

Diamondbacks Cover

38.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.8%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.0%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
4.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Rockies Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.2
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +14.1% more
Arizona: 6.8 vs Colorado: 5.9
Walks (L5) +10.0% more
Arizona: 3.3 vs Colorado: 3.0
Errors (L5) +86.0% more
Colorado: 0.9 vs Arizona: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +40.3% more
Colorado: 1.4 vs Arizona: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.6 0
ARI Score 4.8 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 10.1 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 5.9 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 16.8 18.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.0 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +141 / -171 → +185 / -204 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
9%TICKETS91%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
91%TICKETS9%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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