PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
64-56 | Road
6
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
59-60 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Dobbins
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | 1-8 | 6.48 | 1.57 | 75.0 | 63 |
| Hunter Dobbins | 2-2 | 3.60 | 1.30 | 40.0 | 36 |
1-8
W-L
2-2
6.48
ERA
Ldr 3.60
1.57
WHIP
Ldr 1.30
75.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
40.0
63 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
36
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
43%
CARDINALS
57%
▲ Edge: +9% (STL)
PHILLIES
54%
Book Odds: -117
CARDINALS
48%
Book Odds: +108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 9.0
53%
Under 9.0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.724
▲
OPS
.691
3
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5466.7% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.9% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Hits (L5)
+10.4% more
St. Louis: 10.1
vs
Philadelphia: 9.1
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.7%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.2
6
STL Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 9.1
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 11.4
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 15.0
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.6 / 5.1
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -111 / -109
→
-117 / +108
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PHI
STL
PHI
ML
53%
85-74
59%
97-67
52%
84-77
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
89-70
65%
107-57
53%
85-76
51%
83-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
57%
88-67-9
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-76-9
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