BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
57-62 | Road
5
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
59-61 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dean Kremer
#13 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 7-7 | 4.20 | 1.24 | 115.2 | 98 |
| Dean Kremer | 1-4 | 5.93 | 1.32 | 41.0 | 40 |
7-7
W-L
1-4
4.20 Ldr
ERA
5.93
1.24 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
115.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
41.0
98 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
40
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
59%
TWINS
41%
▲ Edge: +8.50% (BAL)
ORIOLES
51%
Book Odds: -102
TWINS
52%
Book Odds: -107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.80
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.80
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026
MIN @ BAL
6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026
MIN @ BAL
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Minnesota
MIN
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+33.7% more
Baltimore: 1.9
vs
Minnesota: 1.3
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6
vs
Minnesota: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+29.9% more
Baltimore: 17.1
vs
Minnesota: 12.0
Hits (L5)
+20.5% more
Baltimore: 8.8
vs
Minnesota: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.0
5
MIN Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.8
14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 8.2
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 17.1
23.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.2
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -111 / -109
→
-102 / -107
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BAL
MIN
BAL
ML
52%
84-78
53%
83-73
50%
80-81
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
95-67
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
78-75-9
54%
81-70-5
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-75-6
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