NEW YORK
METSNYM
53-67 | Road
8
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
71-48 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Scott
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott | 3-3 | 3.15 | 1.26 | 74.1 | 92 |
| Bryce Elder | 8-6 | 3.69 | 1.20 | 126.2 | 104 |
3-3
W-L
8-6
3.15 Ldr
ERA
3.69
1.26
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
74.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 126.2
92
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
METS
67%
BRAVES
33%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (NYM)
METS
44%
Book Odds: +126
BRAVES
58%
Book Odds: -137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.1%
ATL By 1-2 runs
14.1%
ATL By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
3.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.705
OPS
▲
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+77.2% more
New York: 5.7
vs
Atlanta: 1.3
Hits (L5)
+28.5% more
New York: 10.4
vs
Atlanta: 7.4
Total Bases (L5)
+21.7% more
New York: 17.4
vs
Atlanta: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.0
8
ATL Score
3.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 10.4
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 9.5
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 17.4
12.0 / 20.0
Walks
1.3 / 5.7
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -157
→
+126 / -137
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46%
77-90
50%
79-80
54%
90-78
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-66
52%
87-81
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
80-66-13
49%
76-80-11
51%
74-72-13
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