BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
64-54 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
57-63 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sonny Gray
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jameson Taillon
#56 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 14-2 | 2.78 | 1.15 | 119.2 | 106 |
| Jameson Taillon | 2-6 | 5.96 | 1.39 | 80.0 | 72 |
14-2
W-L
2-6
2.78 Ldr
ERA
5.96
1.15 Ldr
WHIP
1.39
119.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
80.0
106 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
72
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
54%
BLUE JAYS
46%
▲ Edge: +5% (TOR)
RED SOX
61%
Book Odds: -158
BLUE JAYS
41%
Book Odds: +145
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 8.5
57%
Under 8.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
15.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Toronto
4.1
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
Boston: 0.6
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+300.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+44.8% more
Toronto: 5.8
vs
Boston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.6
1
TOR Score
4.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 9.9
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 6.8
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 14.6
11.0 / 7.0
Walks
5.8 / 4.0
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -173 / +142
→
-158 / +145
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
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