HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
60-59 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
62-57 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristian Javier
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 1-2 | 6.59 | 1.68 | 27.1 | 23 |
| Randy Vasquez | 7-6 | 4.19 | 1.42 | 101.0 | 65 |
1-2
W-L
7-6
6.59
ERA
Ldr 4.19
1.68
WHIP
Ldr 1.42
27.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 101.0
23
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 65
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
34%
PADRES
66%
▲ Edge: +12.40% (SD)
ASTROS
48%
Book Odds: +107
PADRES
54%
Book Odds: -116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 9.0
67%
Under 9.0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
HOU By 1-2 runs
13.9%
HOU By 3-4 runs
8.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
San Diego
6.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.7
A
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
HOU @ SD
6 - 3
Apr 20, 2025
SD @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 19, 2025
SD @ HOU
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.582
OPS
▲
.925
4
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+100.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+34.3%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+20.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+15.9%
San Diego: 32.8%
vs
Houston: 16.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.4
2
SD Score
6.3
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.8
12.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 8.7
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 14.2
25.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.1 / 4.0
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
+107 / -116
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
HOU
SD
HOU
ML
51%
85-83
50%
81-82
51%
85-82
47%
77-87
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
91-72
55%
92-75
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
82-80-6
45%
70-84-9
54%
86-74-6
45%
69-86-9
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