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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

71-46  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 9 • 4:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

56-63  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Emerson Hancock
STARTING PITCHER

Emerson Hancock

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ian Seymour 8-3 4.27 1.13 84.1 99
Emerson Hancock 6-6 3.33 1.07 116.1 108
8-3 W-L 6-6
4.27 ERA Ldr 3.33
1.13 WHIP Ldr 1.07
84.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 116.1
99 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 108
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
42%
📊
MARINERS
58%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (SEA)
RAYS 51% Book Odds: -102
MARINERS 52% Book Odds: -106
Book Implied: 50.50% / 51.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 7.0 60%
Under 7.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

57.9%

Mariners Cover

42.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.8%

TB By 3-4 runs

11.2%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.4%

SEA By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
4.3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
A
Sim Mariners (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 TB @ SEA 4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 TB @ SEA 3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026 TB @ SEA 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026 SEA @ TB 8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026 SEA @ TB 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.728 ▲
OPS
.693
169
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +13.0% more
Seattle: 0.6 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +11.4% more
Seattle: 7.9 vs Tampa Bay: 7.1
Walks (L5) +10.5% more
Seattle: 2.8 vs Tampa Bay: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +7.7% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.5 4
SEA Score 4.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.6 6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.1 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 13.2 8.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.6 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +107 / -115 → -102 / -106 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TB
SEA
TB
ML
50% 81-81
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 98-64
60% 97-66
59% 95-67
55% 90-73
TTL
56% 85-67-10
47% 73-81-9
53% 81-71-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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