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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

58-60  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 9 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

49-69  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Troy Melton 7-1 1.58 0.91 74.0 64
Logan Webb 7-7 3.74 1.11 125.0 101
7-1 W-L 7-7
1.58 Ldr ERA 3.74
0.91 Ldr WHIP 1.11
74.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 125.0
64 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 101
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
68%
📊
GIANTS
32%
▲ Edge: +13.10% (DET)
TIGERS 55% Book Odds: -122
GIANTS 47% Book Odds: +113
Book Implied: 55% / 46.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 (Over)
Over 7.5 76%
Under 7.5 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 GiantsSF (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

68.3%

Giants Cover

31.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

13.9%

SF By 3-4 runs

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6.1
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.50
4.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.50
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Tigers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 DET @ SF 3 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 DET @ SF 8 - 0
Aug 7, 2026 DET @ SF 2 - 5
May 28, 2025 SF @ DET 3 - 4
May 27, 2025 SF @ DET 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
181 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +54.4% more
Detroit: 11.1 vs San Francisco: 5.1
Total Bases (L5) +48.8% more
Detroit: 16.1 vs San Francisco: 8.2
Strikeouts (L5) +18.6% more
Detroit: 8.4 vs San Francisco: 6.9
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Detroit: 0.3 vs San Francisco: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 6.1 3
SF Score 4.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.1 / 11.1 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.4 14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.2 / 16.1 9.0 / 7.0
Walks 5.5 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -116 / -104 → -122 / +113 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
81%TICKETS19%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
DET
SF
DET
ML
49% 79-81
54% 86-73
53% 85-75
54% 87-73
ATS
62% 100-60
64% 101-58
52% 83-77
57% 91-69
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 69-81-9
46% 68-81-11
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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