Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Cardinals COL @ STL

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

46-72  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 9 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

59-59  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Michael Lorenzen
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Lorenzen

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael McGreevy
STARTING PITCHER

Michael McGreevy

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Lorenzen 3-10 6.94 1.85 107.2 80
Michael McGreevy 4-9 3.59 1.20 120.1 81
3-10 W-L 4-9
6.94 ERA Ldr 3.59
1.85 WHIP Ldr 1.20
107.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 120.1
80 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 81
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
40%
📊
CARDINALS
60%
ROCKIES 40% Book Odds: +149
CARDINALS 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 40.20% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 9.0 48%
Under 9.0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

61.8%

Cardinals Cover

38.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.8%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.0%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
4.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
6
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.2
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.739 ▲
OPS
.691
180 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +27.8% more
St. Louis: 3.8 vs Colorado: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5) +20.7% more
St. Louis: 7.7 vs Colorado: 6.4
Home Runs (L5) +22.4% more
Colorado: 1.2 vs St. Louis: 0.9
Hits (L5) +19.9% more
Colorado: 10.1 vs St. Louis: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.7 4
STL Score 4.9 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.1 / 10.1 14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 6.4 3.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 16.3 19.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -173 → +149 / -162 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
17%TICKETS83%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
COL
STL
COL
ML
53% 85-74
60% 97-64
52% 84-77
55% 88-73
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-64
53% 85-76
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 68-81-10
60% 93-62-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 13 hours ago
Cardinals Face Critical Contract Calls on Jordan Walker, Alec Bu…
si 3 days, 1 hour ago
Phillies' Wild Card Collapse: Bullpen Blunders, Painter's Promis…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
sny 4 days, 1 hour ago