CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
58-61 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
61-56 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Davis Martin
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | 8-7 | 3.87 | 1.47 | 118.2 | 129 |
| Davis Martin | 9-6 | 4.13 | 1.31 | 122.0 | 107 |
8-7
W-L
9-6
3.87 Ldr
ERA
4.13
1.47
WHIP
Ldr 1.31
118.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 122.0
129 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
107
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
35%
WHITE SOX
65%
▲ Edge: +18.90% (CHW)
GUARDIANS
55%
Book Odds: -124
WHITE SOX
47%
Book Odds: +115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 8.5
48%
Under 8.5
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.1%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.4%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 5
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 5
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
A
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+13.0%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.2% more
Chicago: 9.1
vs
Cleveland: 8.1
On-Base Pct (Season)
+9.9%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Cleveland: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.2
3
CHW Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 10.0
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.1
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 15.3
13.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.8
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -123
→
-124 / +115
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
56%
94-73
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-68
56%
93-74
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
96-69-2
55%
88-71-2
51%
84-81-2
43%
69-90-2
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