Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Royals CHC @ KC

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

69-50  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Aug 9 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

49-70  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
@
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Boyd 7-1 3.59 1.22 72.2 63
Randy Dobnak 2-0 1.16 1.19 31.0 15
7-1 W-L 2-0
3.59 ERA Ldr 1.16
1.22 WHIP Ldr 1.19
72.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 31.0
63 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 15
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
69%
📊
ROYALS
31%
▲ Edge: +6.60% (CHC)
CUBS 62% Book Odds: -165
ROYALS 40% Book Odds: +151
Book Implied: 62.30% / 39.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.3 (Under)
Over 10.5 39%
Under 10.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Chicago Cubs (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

69.1%

Royals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 6
3.6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 6
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Royals Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
B
Sim u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CHC @ KC 10 - 2
Aug 8, 2026 CHC @ KC 3 - 6
Aug 7, 2026 CHC @ KC 6 - 4
Jul 23, 2025 KC @ CHC 8 - 4
Jul 22, 2025 KC @ CHC 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.374
OPS
▲ .718
0
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +8.9% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Walks (L5) +8.6% more
Chicago: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 3.0
Home Runs (Season) +17000.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +376.0% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.6 10
KC Score 3.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 8.2 6.0 / 18.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 5.8 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 13.8 11.0 / 27.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -178 / +147 → -165 / +151 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10 → 10.5 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHC
KC
CHC
ML
55% 89-72
58% 93-68
56% 90-70
51% 82-79
ATS
57% 91-70
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-67
47% 75-85-1
TTL
58% 90-64-7
52% 81-74-6
54% 83-70-7
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 53 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 12 hours ago
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS
yahoo 1 day, 18 hours ago
Patrick Mahomes Sr. Cleared for Chiefs Home Games with Strict Ur…
nypost 2 days ago