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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

45-73  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 9 • 1:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

60-59  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ryan Gusto
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Gusto

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grayson Rodriguez 3-4 7.24 1.59 51.0 42
Ryan Gusto 0-3 4.80 1.36 45.0 39
3-4 W-L 0-3
7.24 ERA Ldr 4.80
1.59 WHIP Ldr 1.36
51.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 45.0
42 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 39
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
28%
📊
MARLINS
72%
▲ Edge: +13.60% (MIA)
ANGELS 44% Book Odds: +130
MARLINS 59% Book Odds: -141
Book Implied: 43.50% / 58.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 8.5 62%
Under 8.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

26.6%

Marlins Cover

73.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

12.1%

LAA By 3-4 runs

6.6%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.1%

MIA By 3-4 runs

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
6.1
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Marlins Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
B
Sim Marlins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAA @ MIA 3 - 12
Aug 8, 2026 LAA @ MIA 0 - 7
Aug 7, 2026 LAA @ MIA 4 - 3
May 25, 2025 MIA @ LAA 3 - 0
May 24, 2025 MIA @ LAA 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.679
OPS
▲ .727
154
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +62.0% more
Miami: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Hits (L5) +45.6% more
Miami: 9.0 vs Los Angeles: 6.2
Total Bases (L5) +31.3% more
Miami: 12.5 vs Los Angeles: 9.5
Runs per Game (Season) +9.2% more
Miami: 4.4 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.6 3
MIA Score 6.1 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 2.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.0 / 6.2 14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 9.5 12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 9.5 22.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.8 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +125 / -151 → +130 / -141 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
20%TICKETS80%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAA
MIA
LAA
ML
48% 78-84
59% 96-66
55% 88-72
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 91-71
60% 97-65
54% 86-74
51% 82-80
TTL
56% 88-69-5
53% 83-74-5
53% 82-73-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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