Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Red Sox ATH @ BOS

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

47-71  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 9 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

64-53  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
J.T. Ginn
STARTING PITCHER

J.T. Ginn

#35 | Starting Pitcher
@
Erik Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Miller

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
J.T. Ginn 8-6 3.51 1.21 115.1 105
Erik Miller 2-0 2.57 1.34 35.0 49
8-6 W-L 2-0
3.51 ERA Ldr 2.57
1.21 Ldr WHIP 1.34
115.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 35.0
105 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 49
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
48%
📊
RED SOX
52%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (ATH)
ATHLETICS 34% Book Odds: +197
RED SOX 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 33.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 9.5 33%
Under 9.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

53.0%

Red Sox Cover

47.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.9%

ATH By 3-4 runs

12.7%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.9%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
3.9
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
A
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 ATH @ BOS 4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026 ATH @ BOS 7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026 ATH @ BOS 1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026 BOS @ ATH 5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 BOS @ ATH 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.719 ▲
OPS
.409
194 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +98.7% more
Boston: 4.5 vs Athletics: 2.2
Hits (L5) +81.7% more
Boston: 11.8 vs Athletics: 6.5
Total Bases (L5) +63.8% more
Boston: 18.9 vs Athletics: 11.5
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.6 4
BOS Score 3.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.8 / 6.5 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 12.2 4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 18.9 / 11.5 6.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +209 / -259 → +197 / -218 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
15%TICKETS85%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10.5 → 9.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATH
BOS
ATH
ML
50% 80-80
59% 95-67
47% 76-87
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-67
52% 84-78
48% 79-84
50% 81-80
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 84-73-5
47% 74-83-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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