CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
56-61 | Road
1
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
59-61 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brad Lord
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 5-10 | 4.67 | 1.43 | 113.2 | 97 |
| Brad Lord | 5-2 | 3.81 | 1.20 | 59.0 | 52 |
5-10
W-L
5-2
4.67
ERA
Ldr 3.81
1.43
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
113.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
59.0
97 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
52
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
51%
NATIONALS
49%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (CIN)
REDS
51%
Book Odds: -102
NATIONALS
52%
Book Odds: -106
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 9.0
62%
Under 9.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.9%
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5.20
Washington
5.1
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5.20
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
CIN @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
CIN @ WSH
2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026
CIN @ WSH
3 - 5
May 14, 2026
WSH @ CIN
1 - 15
May 13, 2026
WSH @ CIN
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.699
OPS
▲
.744
213
▲
Home Runs
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+55.5% more
Cincinnati: 1.9
vs
Washington: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5
vs
Washington: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.8% more
Cincinnati: 9.1
vs
Washington: 6.9
Walks (L5)
+14.4% more
Cincinnati: 3.7
vs
Washington: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.2
1
WSH Score
5.1
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 6.4
13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 9.1
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 13.1
17.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.7
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108
→
-102 / -106
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CIN
WSH
CIN
ML
57%
92-69
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
81-73-5
42%
65-90-6
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
Padres Reinforce Bullpen as Mason Miller Rejoins for NLDS Game 4