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TOLUCATOLUCA

6-2-2  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 2 • 9:05 PM ET
Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

NECAXANECAXA

2-2-6  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
31%
DRAW
28%
NECAXA
41%
▲ Edge: +18.10% (Necaxa)
69% Book Odds: -217
DRAW 22% Book Odds: +360
18% Book Odds: +460
Book Implied: 68.50% / 21.70% / 17.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.4
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 2.75 42%
Under 2.75 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.2
NECAXA
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 goals (Necaxa)
TolucaToluca (-1.2) 0 NecaxaNecaxa (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

75.2% / 24.8%

Shots (On Goal)

26(8) / 9(3)

Corners

6 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/2

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

44.7%

Cover

55.3%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Necaxa -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Necaxa)

Toluca By 1 goal

19.2%

Toluca By 2+ goals

12.9%

Necaxa By 1 goal

22.8%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
1.1
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2
1.3
NECAXA
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
3
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2
0
NECAXA
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Necaxa Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Toluca Win
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Necaxa (+1.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
A
Sim Toluca (-1.25) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.4
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 Toluca vs Necaxa 3 - 1
Mar 22, 2026 Necaxa vs Toluca 1 - 1
Feb 21, 2026 Necaxa vs Toluca 0 - 3
Oct 26, 2025 Toluca vs Necaxa 2 - 2
Jul 12, 2025 Toluca vs Necaxa 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Necaxa: 2.0 vs Toluca: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Necaxa: 1.0 vs Toluca: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Necaxa Score 1.3 1
Toluca Score 1.1 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 31.4% Draw: 27.5% Away Win: 41.1%
Toluca (Home) vs Necaxa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 43.0% Under 2.5: 57.0%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.40
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Toluca Share: 45.8% Necaxa Share: 54.2%
AI Projected Score 1.1 - 1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
Necaxa
Toluca
Necaxa
ML
60% 6-4
40% 4-6
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
ATS
50% 4-4-2
60% 6-4
75% 6-2-2
60% 6-4
TTL
33% 3-6-1
60% 6-4
67% 6-3-1
90% 9-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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