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AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-2-1  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

SANTOSSANTOS

3-1-6  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
27%
DRAW
27%
SANTOS
46%
▲ Edge: +29.40% (Santos)
72% Book Odds: -260
DRAW 19% Book Odds: +420
11% Book Odds: +800
Book Implied: 72.20% / 19.20% / 11.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.4
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 2.75 42%
Under 2.75 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.4
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 goals (Santos)
AméricaAmérica (-1.5) 0 SantosSantos (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.0% / 48.0%

Shots (On Goal)

17(6) / 13(6)

Corners

4 / 11

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

39.5%

Cover

60.5%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Santos -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

América By 1 goal

17.2%

América By 2+ goals

10.3%

Santos By 1 goal

24.2%

Santos By 2+ goals

23.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 2.10
1.4
SANTOS
Book Implied: 0.60
Simulated Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 2.10
0
SANTOS
Book Implied: 0.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Santos Loss
40% Win Prob
C
Sim América Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Santos (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
A
Sim América (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.4
C
Sim u2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 América vs Santos 3 - 0
Apr 4, 2026 Santos vs América 1 - 1
Oct 4, 2025 América vs Santos 3 - 0
Jan 25, 2025 Santos vs América 1 - 4
Oct 19, 2024 América vs Santos 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Santos: 7.0 vs América: 8.0
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
América: 3.0 vs Santos: 0.0
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
América: 1.0 vs Santos: 4.0
Goals Scored (L5) +60.0% more
América: 8.0 vs Santos: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Santos Score 1.4 0
América Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 26.9% Draw: 27.0% Away Win: 46.1%
América (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 43.0% Under 2.5: 57.0%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.40
Expected Goals (xG) Share
América Share: 41.7% Santos Share: 58.3%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Santos
América
Santos
ML
67% 6-3
50% 5-5
78% 7-2
70% 7-3
ATS
50% 4-4-1
44% 4-5-1
100% 7-0-2
67% 6-3-1
TTL
56% 5-4
68% 6-3
78% 7-2
47% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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