LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
70-47 | Road
2
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
62-56 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 11-7 | 2.76 | 0.88 | 133.2 | 121 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 6-1 | 3.66 | 1.26 | 78.2 | 52 |
11-7
W-L
6-1
2.76 Ldr
ERA
3.66
0.88 Ldr
WHIP
1.26
133.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
78.2
121 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
52
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
55%
DIAMONDBACKS
45%
▲ Edge: +8.50% (ARI)
DODGERS
66%
Book Odds: -190
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
Book Odds: +174
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 8.5
59%
Under 8.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.3%
LAD By 3-4 runs
15.3%
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Arizona
4.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dodgers
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.6
B
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.6
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
LAD @ ARI
2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026
LAD @ ARI
2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026
LAD @ ARI
3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026
ARI @ LAD
5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
ARI @ LAD
9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762
▲
OPS
.720
204
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+20.7% more
Los Angeles: 1.5
vs
Arizona: 1.2
Home Runs (Season)
+18.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.1
2
ARI Score
4.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.9
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 6.8
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 13.7
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.2
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -173 / +143
→
-190 / +174
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54%
87-74
56%
92-73
54%
86-74
48%
79-87
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
98-67
56%
89-71
43%
72-94
TTL
52%
80-73-8
48%
77-82-6
49%
73-77-9
44%
70-90-6
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