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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

57-60  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 7:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

49-68  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jackson Jobe
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Jobe

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Landen Roupp
STARTING PITCHER

Landen Roupp

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Jobe 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
Landen Roupp 7-10 4.34 1.29 118.1 120
0-0 W-L 7-10
0.00 Ldr ERA 4.34
0.00 Ldr WHIP 1.29
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 118.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 120
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
67%
📊
GIANTS
33%
▲ Edge: +13.30% (DET)
TIGERS 54% Book Odds: -115
GIANTS 48% Book Odds: +107
Book Implied: 53.50% / 48.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 8.0 74%
Under 8.0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 GiantsSF (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

67.4%

Giants Cover

32.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

14.1%

SF By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
4.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.6
A
Sim u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 DET @ SF 3 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 DET @ SF 8 - 0
Aug 7, 2026 DET @ SF 2 - 5
May 28, 2025 SF @ DET 3 - 4
May 27, 2025 SF @ DET 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
181 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +43.4% more
Detroit: 11.6 vs San Francisco: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +31.8% more
Detroit: 16.6 vs San Francisco: 11.3
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Detroit: 0.4 vs San Francisco: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +14.8% more
Detroit: 9.1 vs San Francisco: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 6.2 8
SF Score 4.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 11.6 2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 9.1 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 16.6 2.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.6 9.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → -115 / +107 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
68%TICKETS32%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
34%TICKETS66%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
DET
SF
DET
ML
49% 79-81
54% 86-73
53% 85-75
54% 87-73
ATS
62% 100-60
64% 101-58
52% 83-77
57% 91-69
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 69-81-9
46% 68-81-11
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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