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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

46-71  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

58-59  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Matthew Liberatore
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Liberatore

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Freeland 3-10 6.81 1.49 108.1 93
Matthew Liberatore 5-8 4.97 1.49 108.2 107
3-10 W-L 5-8
6.81 ERA Ldr 4.97
1.49 WHIP 1.49
108.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 108.2
93 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 107
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
47%
📊
CARDINALS
53%
▲ Edge: +5.50% (COL)
ROCKIES 42% Book Odds: +140
CARDINALS 60% Book Odds: -152
Book Implied: 41.70% / 60.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 8.5 52%
Under 8.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

53.0%

Cardinals Cover

47.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

17.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

12.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.9%

STL By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
4.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.739 ▲
OPS
.691
180 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +28.0% more
St. Louis: 9.1 vs Colorado: 7.1
Home Runs (L5) +12.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.7
Hits (L5) +26.1% more
Colorado: 9.7 vs St. Louis: 7.1
Total Bases (L5) +21.5% more
Colorado: 14.9 vs St. Louis: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.2 8
STL Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 9.7 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.1 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 14.9 16.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.0 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163 → +140 / -152 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
14%TICKETS86%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
COL
STL
COL
ML
53% 85-74
60% 97-64
52% 84-77
55% 88-73
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-64
53% 85-76
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 68-81-10
60% 93-62-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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