CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
58-60 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
60-56 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 11-6 | 3.56 | 1.04 | 139.0 | 178 |
| Anthony Kay | 8-5 | 4.01 | 1.35 | 110.0 | 90 |
11-6
W-L
8-5
3.56 Ldr
ERA
4.01
1.04 Ldr
WHIP
1.35
139.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
110.0
178 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
90
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
38%
WHITE SOX
62%
▲ Edge: +15% (CHW)
GUARDIANS
56%
Book Odds: -125
WHITE SOX
47%
Book Odds: +115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 7.0
62%
Under 7.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.8%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.0%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Chicago
4.7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
A
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 5
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Chicago: 1.5
vs
Cleveland: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.4% more
Chicago: 10.6
vs
Cleveland: 8.7
OPS (Season)
+13.0%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.5
3
CHW Score
4.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.5
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 8.7
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 13.4
11.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.8 / 4.3
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +103
→
-125 / +115
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
48%
81-87
54%
87-75
56%
94-74
49%
80-83
ATS
59%
99-69
57%
93-69
55%
93-75
58%
95-68
TTL
58%
97-69-2
56%
89-71-2
51%
85-81-2
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox