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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

56-61  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 7:15 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

59-58  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Bradish
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Bradish

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob deGrom
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob deGrom

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Bradish 7-10 3.79 1.36 121.0 117
Jacob deGrom 7-7 3.96 1.14 113.2 135
7-10 W-L 7-7
3.79 Ldr ERA 3.96
1.36 WHIP Ldr 1.14
121.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 113.2
117 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 135
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
51%
📊
RANGERS
49%
▲ Edge: +8.60% (BAL)
ORIOLES 43% Book Odds: +134
RANGERS 59% Book Odds: -146
Book Implied: 42.70% / 59.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 7.5 68%
Under 7.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

51.0%

Rangers Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.9%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
4.6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 BAL @ TEX 10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026 TEX @ BAL 3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026 TEX @ BAL 8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Texas TEX
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.711
OPS
▲ .713
199 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +14.1% more
Baltimore: 8.9 vs Texas: 7.6
Home Runs (Season) +8.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Runs per Game (Season) +7.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Texas: 4.2
Walks (L5) +37.7% more
Texas: 3.7 vs Baltimore: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.7 1
TEX Score 4.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.6 / 5.5 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 8.9 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 9.2 9.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142 → +134 / -146 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
45%TICKETS55%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
40%TICKETS60%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BAL
TEX
BAL
ML
53% 86-76
53% 83-73
57% 91-70
57% 90-69
ATS
57% 92-70
61% 95-60-1
61% 98-63
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 78-70-14
54% 81-70-5
55% 81-66-14
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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